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Economy glides the risk increases

From;    Author:Stand originally

" finance and economics " Li Zengxin of Zhang Huanyu of chief economist Shen Ming's tall reporter

Need to have the tendency of comprehensive rein in outside, investment quickens the influence that rein in needs outside offsetting hard however somewhat, 3 quarters economy grows the possibility of further be issued to lower levels to increase

  [" net of finance and economics " stalk of grain only / Li Zengxin of Zhang Huanyu of chief economist Shen Ming's tall reporter]Data showed in August, need to have the tendency of comprehensive rein in outside, although investment quickens the influence that rein in needs outside offsetting hard however somewhat, 3 quarters economy grows the possibility of further be issued to lower levels to increase.
Domestic economy rein in can pull low entrance to add fast, foreign trade favourable balance is added in exit fast the growth that when gliding, still can keep faster, but the possibility that 0 increase foreign trade surplus this year is very large still. Needing inside will be stable this year even the main engine that next year economy grows, relative to at local financial capacity character, central finance will produce main effect in needing inside stimulation, exciting strength basically depends on the exasperate degree of external economy.

CPI still is put rebound risk
The dweller consumed price total level in August (CPI) rise compared to the same period 4.9% . Among them food rises in price 10.3% , blame food rises in price 2.1% , although the fall after a rise of CPI is very apparent, but the rebounding that still cannot ignore future to may appear risk.

Of price of international the sources of energy drop to be adjusted for price of domestic natural resources provided a space, in view of the price twist harm to economy, this one problem is carried probably afresh in appropriate time agenda, this can increase the difficulty that inflation administers necessarily. Another does not decide the element still is over grain price, 3 in after plenary meeting, commissariat price still faces upgoing pressure. In addition, the PPI that still is in perch also will be in pressure of price of certain level admiral is conducted to CPI over. Accordingly, still cannot despise to inflation.
The scene that second half of the year may appear is: Blame provision section increases to inflationary contribution, its compared to the same period amplitude may expand further on existing foundation (if adjust further resource price) ; Meanwhile, the price of provision section can maintain relative stability even somewhat fall after a rise. Short-term inside CPI can continue be issued to lower levels, but the end of the year has rebounding possibility.   

In August industrial product producer price (PPI) continue to maintain going up the month is exalted, rise compared to the same period 10.1% . But divide in PPI in, black metal smelt and pressure delay treatment industry producer price goes up compared to the same period from July 31.0% drop to 29.9% August, common and medium-sized the price of large board in be being mixed with small-sized rolled steel, wire compared to the same period amplitude all somewhat fall after a rise.
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